What share of Vietnam’s top US shippers already shipped from China in 2016–17?
Shipper continuity summary - what share of top-50 Vietnam shippers (2022-2025) were also China shippers in 2016-17
Query
WITH china_shippers_2016_17 AS (
SELECT upperUTF8(trimBoth(shipper_name_std)) AS sname
FROM bols
WHERE actual_arrival_date >= toDate('2016-01-01')
AND actual_arrival_date <= toDate('2017-12-31')
AND (match(upperUTF8(country), 'CHINA|ZHONGHUA') OR match(upperUTF8(loading_port), 'SHANGHAI|NINGBO|YANTIAN|SHEKOU|NANSHA|QINGDAO|TIANJIN|DALIAN|GUANGZHOU|XIAMEN'))
AND length(trimBoth(shipper_name_std)) > 3
GROUP BY sname
HAVING count() >= 5
),
vn_top AS (
SELECT upperUTF8(trimBoth(shipper_name_std)) AS sname,
uniqExact(bill_of_lading) AS vn_bols
FROM bols
WHERE actual_arrival_date >= toDate('2022-01-01')
AND actual_arrival_date <= toDate('2025-12-31')
AND (match(upperUTF8(country), 'VIET|VIETNAM') OR match(upperUTF8(loading_port), 'HO CHI MINH|HAI PHONG|HAIPHONG|DA NANG'))
AND length(trimBoth(shipper_name_std)) > 3
AND weight_in_kg > 1000
GROUP BY sname
ORDER BY vn_bols DESC
LIMIT 200
)
SELECT
countIf(cs.sname != '') AS overlap_shippers,
countIf(cs.sname = '' OR cs.sname IS NULL) AS new_shippers,
count() AS total_top_200,
round(100.0 * countIf(cs.sname != '') / count(), 1) AS pct_overlap,
sum(vn_top.vn_bols) AS total_bols,
sumIf(vn_top.vn_bols, cs.sname != '') AS overlap_bols,
round(100.0 * sumIf(vn_top.vn_bols, cs.sname != '') / sum(vn_top.vn_bols), 1) AS pct_bols_overlap
FROM vn_top
LEFT JOIN china_shippers_2016_17 AS cs ON vn_top.sname = cs.sname
Result
1 row · US ocean AMS bills of lading (Kirchner bols), arrivals 2014–2025.
| Also China shippers, 2016–17 | Not on China bills, 2016–17 | Top Vietnam shippers | Name overlap % | Unique bills in top 200 | Bills from overlapping names | Bill overlap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 106 | 200 | 47 | 509,801 | 248,585 | 48.80 |
Question
Are Vietnam exporters just Chinese factories that moved?
Answer
Of the 200 largest Vietnam shipper strings on US ocean bills from 2022–25 (weight above 1,000 kg), 94 also appear on China bills in 2016–17 — 47% of names and 48.8% of the 509,801 bills in that top 200. That is overlap of filing strings, not a corporate-family or plant-move identifier. Half the top Vietnam names are new to the 2016–17 China file under this test.
Cite this page if you need the table. Related: China Plus One working paper · all tables